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Brief Report: Clinical Trials Aiming to Prevent Rheumatoid Arthritis Cannot Detect Prevention Without Adequate Risk Stratification: A Trial of Methotrexate Versus Placebo in Undifferentiated Arthritis as an Example

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Brief Report: Clinical Trials Aiming to Prevent Rheumatoid Arthritis Cannot Detect Prevention Without Adequate Risk Stratification: A Trial of Methotrexate Versus Placebo in Undifferentiated Arthritis as an Example

Arthritis & Rheumatology
Volume 69, Issue 5, May 2017, Pages 926–931

Leonie E. Burgers, Cornelia F. Allaart, Tom W. J. Huizinga, Annette H. M. van der Helm-van Mil

Abstract

Objective

Prevention of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) was the aim of several trials in undifferentiated arthritis (UA), with overall negative results. As preparatory work has revealed that only ∼30% of UA patients progress to having RA, we hypothesized that inclusion of patients without imminent RA could lead to false-negative results. We undertook this study to evaluate this hypothesis by reinvestigating the Probable Rheumatoid Arthritis: Methotrexate versus Placebo Treatment (PROMPT) trial (a 1-year course of methotrexate [MTX] versus placebo in UA) after excluding patients without a high risk of developing RA.

Methods

A validated prediction model was used to determine the risk of RA in all patients included in the PROMPT trial. Patients with a prediction score of ≥8 (positive predictive value of ≥84% for developing RA) were considered to have a high risk of developing RA. The effect of a 1-year course of MTX during 5 years of follow-up was reinvestigated in these patients.

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